Markets

ITC faces profit pressure in the second quarter due to rising cigarette taxes

Originally reported by ET Markets as: ITC Q2 Results Preview: Profit seen falling nearly 30% YoY as cigarette tax hikes bite

1 Nov 2026, 11:27 am IST · Xecute.finance News Desk

The crisp read

ITC anticipates a challenging second quarter with brokerages projecting a sharp drop in cigarette operating profit and lower cigarette volumes following recent tax hikes. Consolidated revenue is expected to decline by 3 percent and EBITDA by 20 percent year-on-year according to Nuvama. However, performance cushions from the FMCG and paper segments may offer partial relief against these headwinds.

Xecute Impact Breakdown

For CAs

  • Review the official second-quarter earnings release for ITC as forecasted by market brokerages.
  • Examine segment reporting details and evaluate management commentary regarding the impact of cigarette tax hikes.
  • Assess how the 29 percent year-on-year decline in cigarette operating profit and 8 percent drop in cigarette volumes affect financial statements.

For businesses

  • Prepare for ITC's second quarter financial results which forecast a cigarette operating profit decline of up to 29 percent year-on-year and an 8 percent volume drop due to recent tax increases.
  • Monitor consolidated revenue which Nuvama estimates will decrease by 3 percent year-on-year along with a 20 percent fall in EBITDA.
  • Note that steady performance in FMCG and paper business divisions is expected to provide a financial cushion against core tobacco pressure.

Deep dive - the full story

ITC is preparing to announce its second quarter financial results, with market brokerages forecasting a cigarette operating profit decline of up to 29 percent year-on-year alongside an 8 percent drop in cigarette volumes due to recent tax increases. Nuvama specifically estimates that consolidated revenue will decrease by 3 percent year-on-year and EBITDA will fall by 20 percent. Meanwhile, steady performance in the FMCG and paper business divisions is expected to provide some financial cushion against the core tobacco pressure.

When tax burdens rise on specific product categories, companies face margin compression unless they pass the costs entirely to consumers, which can dampen sales volumes. In contrast to periods of stable taxation, the current environment demonstrates how regulatory changes directly impact core profitability. The historical reliance on high-margin tobacco products now faces headwinds, pushing diversified firms to lean more heavily on alternate revenue streams like packaged foods and paper products.

Financial professionals and portfolio managers should review the official second-quarter earnings release, examine segment reporting details, and evaluate management commentary on volume growth and taxation. Bottom line: Monitoring these quarterly results provides insight into how tax policy shifts affect large conglomerate earnings and diversified segment cushions.

Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

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